0%
Should We Congratulate Mr. Kagame?

Should We Congratulate Mr. Kagame?

by | Aug 10, 2017 | OPINION

The dust has now settled on the thousand hills of Rwanda, and the next seven (or seventeen?) years have been decided: Paul Kagame remains president. That was never really in doubt, anyway. He had declared at a political rally on July 14th that the elections were a forgone conclusion, and he was absolutely correct. There was no opposition, or rather, there were no grounds for an opposition to thrive. Since the famed referendum in 2015 through which 98% of voters reduced the length of presidential terms from seven to five years, granting only an extension for a certain Paul Kagame for a possible third term and two further five-year terms if it pleased him, it was clear (in case there had been any doubt), that the names Kagame and Rwanda would be sung in unison for at least another generation.

No African leader polarizes opinion quite like Paul Kagame: he is fiercely loved and deeply suspected at the same time. He is the sterling image of a new breed of dynamic inspiring leadership, yet cast in the same mould of ‘authoritarian’ god-like rulership with which nearly every African is very familiar. He speaks and sounds like the future, yet he acts just like the past and the present. Over the past two decades, he had been celebrated endlessly by western media who marvelled at how one man almost singlehandedly could transform a war-ravaged country into an oasis of peace and prosperity, but the exact same journalists are now sounding the alarms about his tactics. All of a sudden, the messiah is the villain. So, should we congratulate Mr. Kagame on his victory, or should we be genuinely worried about its implications?

Anyone who doubts that Mr. Kagame is genuinely loved in Rwanda is probably deluded; there is no question that he has earned his status in the country. While a 99% electoral victory is extremely far-fetched in any other country of the world, not so in Rwanda. There could be no substantial allegations of electoral fraud or voter intimidation at the polls; the country literally bows at the feet of a really gaunt figure who governs nearly every aspect of political, social and economic life. While his closest challenger, Frank Habineza managed to attract up to 500 people to his last campaign rally, Kagame’s was bursting at the seams with more than 200,000. He had been accused of suppressing the opposition by arresting challengers, harassing and imprisoning anyone who spoke out publicly against him, stifling the media, and employing just about every tactic in the book to ensure that the errant weeds of political opposition were dealt with before they got a chance to sprout.

But perhaps this is all unfair criticism of a man whose only interest can be said to be the longterm sustainability of peace and prosperity in his country. Many have argued that the clamour for more democratic freedoms in Rwanda is premature, considering the fragile nature of the country’s history. Many have gone as far as to challenge the very premise of democracy in a system that seems to be working just fine; “if the people love Kagame and he is working tirelessly to uplift the country economically, then why change that”? Others have criticized western governments for employing highhanded tactics to attempt to further influence domestic affairs in Africa, citing the examples of Libya and similar countries that have struggled to find stability after western intervention. Perhaps Kagame is just what Rwanda needs, and perhaps Africa as a whole. Maybe other governments should be learning from him.

The fears expressed by African citizens are well-founded, however; no one who has ruled beyond their first and second terms in any African country has retained popularity. In essence, it is downhill from here, if history is a reliable guide. Will Kagame be any different? Will he eventually release his stranglehold on the country after he has driven Rwanda to a hilltop of economic prosperity? Will Rwandan citizens retain their love for him over time? Will he manage to build institutions with established processes that serve the many, rather than the few? Will he dispel the cloud of oppression that seems to envelope the entire country? Will the sudden disappearances of political opponents cease? Will there be a free press at some point?

Maybe democracy indeed is overrated. Maybe it doesn’t matter what foreigners think, as long as Rwandan citizens appear to be happy. Maybe it doesn’t matter if nine of 11 political parties endorsed Paul Kagame and refused to put forward candidates in the last elections. Maybe it is okay for Kagame to rule straight on until he turns 76 in 2034. Maybe it will be in the best interest of Rwanda to not upset the apple cart. And maybe the psychological impact of bowing to an emperor-figure is exactly what about 12 million Rwandan citizens need for the foreseeable future. Maybe the country would have eventually found its own rhythm by 2034, and if not, they could always amend the constitution again and permit him a few more years. Maybe we should congratulate Mr. Kagame, or maybe we should be really concerned about what we have never imagined.

One thing is for sure, we have seen this before: in the north, east, west and southern regions of the continent, beloved leaders have transformed into draconian rulers over time, but no one has done it with a subtle smile, a firm voice and a powerful social media engine. But maybe Mr. Kagame is different. Time will tell, but can we really afford that gamble yet again?

Faith Abiodun is Executive Director of Future Africa

Spotlight: Ethiopia is taking over the world. But is it?

Spotlight: Ethiopia is taking over the world. But is it?

by | Jul 24, 2017 | SPOTLIGHT

July 24, 2017

By Faith Abiodun (Nigeria)

According to all global development indices, things are certainly looking up for Ethiopia. The country was announced in June 2017 by the World Economic Forum as having the fastest growing economy in the world in 2017; only five years ago in 2012, it was the 12th in the world.  Its 2017 GDP growth forecast of 8.3% is miles ahead of the global average of 2.7%. In 2011, it was reported by the World Bank that the percentage of Ethiopians living in extreme poverty had shrunk in under a decade from 55.3% to 33.5%. The Human Development Index which measures education, life expectancy and per capita income as a function of human development in a country saw Ethiopia’s rating increase from 0.222 in 2000 to 0.46 in 2015, making it the second fastest growing HDI in the world during those fifteen years. Ethiopia’s national road networks increased from 28,000 km in 2000 to 110,000 km in 2014; mobile phone subscribers and internet users reached 38.8 million and 9.4 million respectively in 2015; and a 69% decrease in maternal mortality coupled with a decrease in total fertility has seen Ethiopia record an unprecedented growth of life expectancy. These are definitely good times for Ethiopia.

Source: World Economic Forum

Ethiopia’s government has declared that it intends to reach lower-middle income status over the next decade; for context, it is currently listed as one of the 10 poorest countries in the world by GDP per capita. Former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Carlos Lopes was so confident of Ethiopia’s growth that he predicted that the country might challenge Nigeria and South Africa at the top of the continent’s economic chain by 2050, if it sustained its pace of economic growth. But what has Ethiopia done different to other African countries? The answer is simple: massive infrastructure investment.

Actually, the answer is not so simple. While Ethiopia has invested extensively in expanding Ethiopian Airlines, the country’s national carrier; expanding access to water and sanitation; upgrading its network of trunk roads, and opening the continent’s first fully electrified cross-border railway line covering more than 750km connecting it to Djibouti, there are sincere concerns about the sustainability of this project. Setting aside concerns about overt Chinese domination at the heart of the country’s infrastructure revolution, there are huge worries about the implication on public debt financing and suppression of individual freedoms in the country. The Ethiopia-Djibouti railway was 70% financed by China’s Exim Bank, built by the China Railway Group and China Civil Engineering Construction, and currently employs Chinese controllers, technicians and station masters, and will do so for the next five years, while their Ethiopian counterparts undergo “training”.

Chinese controllers at the helm of the new Ethiopian rail lines. Source: AFP

With more than $5.1 billion needed annually over the next decade to fund this infrastructure revolution, it is no surprise that Ethiopia has turned to the African Development Bank, World Bank, Chinese banks and other such donors to accelerate its economy. The implication of that is what the World Economic Forum estimates as public debt exceeding 50% of GDP. This implies that Ethiopia will spend a significant portion of its national income servicing debts at high interest rates for years to come. Ethiopia’s growth has been likened to the Chinese revolution of the past half-century, and that is perhaps no surprise given the heavy Chinese presence in the country, but Ethiopia might have taken a little more than inspiration from China. The allegations and reality of human rights suppression in the country are not to be taken lightly – weak press freedoms, oppression of minorities, heavy internet regulation, and denial of right of assembly. In essence, Ethiopia is a heavily regulated country, with citizens and foreigners living under perpetual fear of the regime.

In the search for a sustainable model of economic growth, it appears that there might be no win-win solution. Rwanda is widely derided in western media for the heavy influence of Paul Kagame on the country’s lifestyle, and now so is Ethiopia, following the examples of countries like Turkey and China where the sole influence of the country’s ruling political elite casts a dark shadow on the beautiful image of economic growth. As Africans, it is apparent that we cannot truly have it all, at least in the short term.

Faith Abiodun is Executive Director of Future Africa